Released on = September 11, 2006, 3:30 am

Press Release Author = Bharat Book Bureau

Industry = International Trade

Press Release Summary = Mumbai, India - Sept 11 – Trade in perishable products has
expanded steadily in recent years, spurred by economic growth and increasing
prosperity in East Asia and the transitional economies. However, the past decade has
also seen the share of conventional reeferships eroded year by year through
competition from containerships.

Press Release Body = Trade in perishable products has expanded steadily in recent
years, spurred by economic growth and increasing prosperity in East Asia and the
transitional economies. However, the past decade has also seen the share of
conventional reeferships eroded year by year through competition from
containerships. After several awful years for the reefer shipping industry, marked
by rationalisation and mergers, 2002-04 brought a recovery in freight rates, from
which both conventional reefer and containership operators benefited. However, the
orderbook for containership newbuilding is at an all-time high. Will the reefership
recovery last?

Refrigerated Trades and Outlook to 2015 analyses recent trends and the complicated
dynamics of a market, which is defined not only by the supply/demand balance in the
reefer industry, but also by that in the container shipping industry.
Forecasts to 2015 are developed for the trade in refrigerated goods, by commodity
and type of vessel.

Technical developments in reefership construction are outlined, notably those
designed to enable conventional reefers to compete effectively with the container
industry.

The reefership and containership fleets, and their associated reefer capacity are
analysed, and the reefer operations of both reefer and container carriers are
profiled. Recent newbuilding activity and the type of vessels being built are
reviewed. The implications of current low ordering on capacity in the reefership
fleet and of large-scale ordering on containership capacity are evaluated – and also
the likely impact on future freight rates.

Imports and exports of seaborne refrigerated cargoes are analysed by source and
destination since 1990, covering the following commodity groups:

Bananas & plantains

Deciduous fruits: apples, grapes, pears, peaches, kiwi fruit, plums

Citrus fruits: oranges, tangerines, lemons & limes, grapefruits, pomelos

Tropical fruits: melons, pineapples, mangoes, avocados, papayas & others

Meat: poultry, bovine, porcine and ovine

Fishery products: frozen, chilled & freshwater fish, crustaceans, molluscs &
cephalopods

Dairy products: butter & cheese.

Forecasts of demand growth are derived for each of the trades by major importing
region. The forecasts are aggregated, and the conventional reefership and
containership shares of future trade are also predicted. Future productivity and
reefer freight rate levels are calculated by relating the conventional reefer trade
forecasts to anticipated fleet capacity growth and the likely interaction of
containership freight rates.


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